Can we be more (realistically) optimistic in 2025?

In this article, we will explore the optimism bias and answer questions such as: Is optimism bias good for us? How do we maintain optimism in the face of reality?

Answer this question: If you are (or would be) married, how likely is your marriage to end in divorce?

In the Western world, approximately 40% of marriages end in divorce. This means that, statistically, 2 out of 5 couples will eventually split. However, when you ask newlyweds or even divorce lawyers about their likelihood of getting divorced, they often estimate it at 0%.

This phenomenon extends beyond relationships. When people are asked to rank themselves compared to the population on traits such as attractiveness, honesty, or driving ability, most place themselves above average, which is statistically impossible!

In Behavioral Science, we refer to these estimation errors as “optimism bias”: In various situations, people tend to overestimate the probability of positive events and underestimate the probability of negative events happening to them in the future. For example, we may underestimate our risk of getting cancer and overestimate our future success on the job market.

In fact, “we have the tendency to update our beliefs regarding positive information much more than we do with negative information”, as said by Tali Sharot, professor of cognitive neuroscience at University College London and MIT.

Although it can be attractive to always be optimistic about life situations, is this bias good for us? And how can we maintain optimism when reality doesn’t align with our expectations?

The Science Behind the Optimism Bias

I´m sure you´ve been optimistic in some situations. Maybe you noticed that optimism made you try harder, and it might have led to success.

Optimism doesn’t just alter our perception; it influences outcomes.

When we believe in a brighter future, we are more likely to take proactive steps to achieve it. Indeed, optimistic individuals tend to put in more effort, feel less anxious, and experience fewer negative emotions—all of which contribute to greater success in the long run. As Sharot explains, optimism can reduce stress and anxiety, creating a feedback loop where positive expectations lead to positive actions and outcomes.

However, sometimes we also create expectations around a specific situation. It is believed that the lower one's expectancies, the more delighted one should be following success, and the less disappointed one should be following failure. Is this true?

Although expectancies of success should influence people's emotional reactions to performance outcomes, this depends on how we interpret these events. In an experiment, Marshall & Brown explored how expectations affect emotional reactions to success and failure [1].

Participants with high expectations were more likely to attribute success to their abilities (“I’m smart; that’s why I aced the test”) and dismiss failure as external (“The test was unfair”). On the other hand, participants with low expectations tended to undermine their successes (“The test was easy”) and internalize failure (“I’m not good enough”).

Although participants who expected to fail were less surprised when they failed, they did not feel better about themselves, calmer, or less sad than did those whose expectancies were greater. If anything, just the opposite occurred:  individuals with high expectations felt better about themselves, regardless of the outcome. Those who anticipated success were not only happier when they succeeded but also less demoralized when they failed.

This suggests that maintaining positive expectations can bolster emotional resilience.

So, on some occasions, being optimistic can be good for us. But how can we maintain optimism in the face of reality? Unfortunately, people's estimations of the future are often unrealistically optimistic.

A study by Sharot, Korn, and Dolan explored how people adjust their beliefs when presented with new information (positive or negative). Participants were asked to estimate the likelihood of experiencing different situations in their life, for example the likelihood of getting cancer [2].

Results showed that people would change their beliefs according to the information they receive, but only if they receive a better information than what they expected. Indeed, if in they estimated a likelihood of 40% in the first session, when given positive updates (i.e., the actual likelihood is 30%, lower than what they expected), participants readily adjusted their beliefs by lowering the percentage to 31%. However, if in they estimated a likelihood of 10% in the first session, when faced with negative updates (i.e., the actual likelihood is 30%, higher than what they expected), they were far less likely to revise their expectations or adjusted it to14%, underestimating the probability for them to get cancer.

This estimation error highlights our tendency to cling to optimism, even in the face of contradictory evidence. While this bias can protect our mental health, it also underscores the importance of balancing hope with realism, particularly when making critical life decisions.

Conclusion

Optimism bias is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it fuels resilience, happiness, and motivation. On the other, it can lead to poor preparation or unrealistic expectations.

By understanding how we interpret outcomes and adjust to new information, we can cultivate a healthier and more balanced outlook on life. The key is to harness the benefits of optimism without losing touch with reality.

Are you ready to be more (realistically) optimistic in 2025?

Silvia Cottone

Behavioral Science Consultant & Worldwide Speaker

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This article is based on the TedTalks by Tali Sharot. You can find the video here.

[1] Marshall, M. & Brown, J. (2006). Emotional reactions to achievement outcomes: Is it really best to expect the worst? Cognition and Emotion, 20:1, 43-63.

[2] Sharot T., Korn C. W., Dolan R. J (2011). How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality. Nat Neurosci, 14(11):1475-9.